Now

After some morning storms, we saw some clearing this afternoon and even plenty of sunshine to end your Thursday. Temperatures have warmed into the middle to upper 70’s across the area as expected this afternoon. The warm front has pushed into central Iowa where they are sitting in the 40’s while we enjoy temperatures near 80. Cold front extends through Kansas and will begin working our way as we head through the evening and overnight hours.

Tonight

Heading into tonight, a cold front will start to work into the area from the west. Clouds will be on the increase through the evening hours and a line of showers and storms will develop along the cold front and work into the area after 9 or 10 this evening. Some scattered showers between 6-9 are also possible. Below is the forecasted radar around 10 PM.

Severe Threat

The storm Prediction Center has placed the western part of the area under a slight risk of severe weather as we head through tonight. The threat looks to be minimal though as a lot of the ingredients are not coming together. If a severe storm did develop, the threat would be from gusty winds and some large hail.

Dew points have been pretty low across the area today only in the 40-50 degree range this afternoon. To get more significant severe weather you need higher dew points which bring in more moisture and instability. Dew points will increase through the evening into the 50’s and near 60 which will help just general thunderstorm development.

The increase in dew points and sharp temperature gradient along the front will lead to increased frontogenesis and a good bet for general thunderstorms with some heavy, rain, gusty winds, and perhaps some small hail. Severe storms though, again, look to be isolated and more so in western Missouri.

Rainfall from tonight’s storms will range from .20”.40”. That will bring total rainfall from this morning and tonight in the range of .25”-.75”. The heavier amounts will be off to the northwest while lower amounts across the southeast.

After the cold front moves through, temperatures will drop to right around 40 by Friday Morning. Clouds will hang around through the mid-day hour but sunshine starts to return for the afternoon. Cold temperatures in the mid 30’s for Friday night will lead to some isolated frost Saturday morning. After that, we can expect plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures for the weekend. It will be an absolutely gorgeous weekend. Moderating temperatures as we head into next week and the next chance of precipitation does not look to be until at least mid-week after tonight.

Have a good weekend Heartland!

-Brian