Nation Severe

A wide spread life threatening outbreak of severe weather is occurring today in portions of Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Kansas. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of that area under a “High Risk” of severe weather. They are expecting long lived, potentially deadly tornados this afternoon and evening. If you know anyone living out there, they should pay attention to the weather and local media.

For our area, we are on the eastern edge of the slight risk zone as we head into tonight. The best chance for severe weather in the area will be the WESTERN and NORTHWESTERN part of the viewing area. Hail and flooding rain would be the primary focus of any severe storm that forms. Although, isolated wind damage and perhaps an isolated tornado is not out of the question.

Again, widespread severe weather is NOT likely in our area. It will be more just some ISOLATED severe storms. The line of storms will be moving into our area in a weakening phase. The best dynamics for widespread severe storms will continue to be out to the west of us.

No severe weather watches are in place for our area. They continue to be off to the west. I think the watches will stay to the west of our area. There could be a watch issued later for western Iowa and Missouri. A few of our western counties could possibly be included in that.

Now

We saw some showers and storms earlier this morning and afternoon. The warm front has moved through the area and temperatures have really warmed to near 70. You can feel the increased moisture moving in too. We should be in a nice little break from any precipitation for the next couple of hours and even see some peaks of sunshine. This is all because a “cap” has formed. 

A cap is a region of stable air in the atmosphere that traps lifting of air that originates under it. This happens when warm air aloft is brought into the area and it is warmer then the air below it. Temperatures generally cool as you rise in the atmosphere, but when a cap is in place warmer air is above while cooler air is below. Because cooler air is denser, it sinks. And when the air is cooler at ground level, it can’t rise and cause thunderstorm development.

Tonight

After sunset our weather will begin to change once again. The “cap” will be broken and are atmosphere will be destabilizing ahead of the storms out to the west. The low level jet stream will continue to be strong. These are the winds just above the ground in the lower atmosphere.  This will feed plenty of warm air and moisture from the south our way. These are the needed ingredients for severe weather development, hence our isolated severe chances as we head into the evening and overnight hours.

It looks like the strongest storms will be to the west and northwest. The further southeast you go the lower chance you have for severe weather and overall storm activity as we head through the night. The image below is forecasted radar as we head through the evening and night.

Rain

Total rainfall from tonight through tomorrow will be around .50”-1” in the southeast to around 1”-2” in the northwest. This will bring total rainfall from Friday though Sunday in the 2”-4” inch range.

More updates to follow if needed! Have a good weekend everyone.

-Brian